DE

Projects

Eight stages. And the evidence each of them demands.

The value of a storage project does not rise evenly. It jumps where a risk disappears. This axis is therefore the structural backbone of everything we do.

54GW1
connection offers in 2025 against 574 GW of requests. The offer is the decisive stage
2.4GW2
of storage that has run this axis to the end in Germany

Stages, not percentages

“The project is 70 percent complete” says nothing. A project with secured land but no grid connection offer is not further along than one with an offer and an open land question — it is open in a different place, and one question weighs far more than the other.

So we describe projects by the stages reached and the evidence on file. That is less comfortable than a percentage, but it can be checked. A due diligence will ask for exactly this anyway.

The axis in detail

These figures are experience, not market statistics. Project value is indexed to Ready to Build = 100 and given as ranges; absolute amounts and per-megawatt figures are not shown here, because they depend on site, size and timing. The width of the bands is the uncertainty — it is drawn, not averaged away.

1Greenfield2Land3Requested4Offer5Permits6RtB7NTP8COD050100+6+5Step +34Step +29+21+7+18Our handover
Value does not rise evenly. Two stages carry most of it: the grid connection grant and planning consent. Before and after, it advances in small steps. The last step is built rather than developed: between notice to proceed and commercial operation, value rises because money is spent.
1Greenfield2Land3Requested4Offer5Permits6RtB7NTP8COD0 %25 %50 %75 %100 %+5 %+4 %Step +26 %Step +22 %+16 %+5 %+14 %Our handoverTipping point
Value share and residual risk, both as a percentage of their own range. Where the bands overlap, the balance between risk and value tips — at the grid connection grant. Handover happens two stages later, when residual risk is in single digits.
1GreenfieldValue 3–62LandValue 8–143RequestedValue 12–204OfferValue 42–585PermitsValue 72–866RtBValue 100–1007NTPValue 102–1128CODValue 115–135
  • Project value, indexed to Ready to Build = 100
  • Residual risk to commercial operation, per cent
  • The width of the bands is the range, not a rounding error

Greenfield

What the stage means
A site has been identified and roughly assessed: grid proximity, plot geometry, access, planning baseline. No rights to the land exist yet.
Evidence on file
Map assessment with district and parcel number
Distance to the nearest substation and medium-voltage line
First view on planning permissibility
Risk removed
None yet. At this stage time is invested, not capital.
Why projects fail here
The distance to the grid is too great. The nearest point with spare capacity is so far away that cable, wayleaves and construction time eat the return.
The land is already committed elsewhere. Another developer holds an option or lease — or the capacity at the connection point is taken by a project that does not yet exist.
Relative project value
3 to 6, relative to Ready to Build = 100. Residual risk to commercial operation: 85–95 %.
To the next stage
1 to 6 months
Where we hand over
No handover. Projects at this stage appear in no pipeline figure shown to investors.

Land secured

What the stage means
A written right of use exists: lease, option agreement or preliminary contract with the owner, secured in rem or with a priority notice.
Evidence on file
Signed lease or option agreement over the project term
Land register extract and proof of ownership
Consent for cable rights and access
Risk removed
The risk that a competitor secures the same site is removed.
Why projects fail here
The grid connection is refused — or offered at a price that does not carry. No spare capacity at the nearest point, or a construction cost contribution that tips the calculation.
Servicing or access cannot be arranged. Containers and transformer arrive by low-loader. Where that cannot go, the project ends.
Relative project value
8 to 14, relative to Ready to Build = 100. Residual risk to commercial operation: 70–85 %.
To the next stage
1 to 3 months
Where we hand over
Earliest stage for co-development: the investor enters at mid-stage valuation and shares development risk.

Grid connection requested

What the stage means
The connection request is with the responsible grid operator, complete and acknowledged. This holds a place in the processing order.
Evidence on file
Complete connection request with power, capacity and operating mode
Grid operator's dated acknowledgement of receipt
Site plan with proposed connection point
Risk removed
None. A request is not an entitlement: in 2025 around 574 GW of requests faced around 54 GW of offers nationwide.
Why projects fail here
The grid connection is refused — or offered at a price that does not carry. No spare capacity at the nearest point, or a construction cost contribution that tips the calculation.
Relative project value
12 to 20, relative to Ready to Build = 100. Residual risk to commercial operation: 60–80 %.
To the next stage
3 to 18 months
Where we hand over
None. A project without an offer is a request, not an asset.

Grid connection offerStep

What the stage means
The grid operator has bindingly named the connection point and confirmed the connectable capacity, including the construction cost contribution.
Evidence on file
Connection offer with connection point, capacity and deadlines
Draft connection contract
Quantified construction cost contribution under the capacity price model
Where applicable, a flexible connection agreement under section 17(2b) EnWG
Risk removed
The single largest development risk is removed. From here the site is technically proven.
Why projects fail here
The grid connection is refused — or offered at a price that does not carry. No spare capacity at the nearest point, or a construction cost contribution that tips the calculation.
Planning permission is out of reach. The outer-area privilege does not apply, and the municipality will not adopt a development plan.
Relative project value
42 to 58, relative to Ready to Build = 100. Residual risk to commercial operation: 25–40 %.
To the next stage
6 to 18 months
Where we hand over
Typical stage for forward structures: contract signed, completion tied to the remaining milestones.

PermitsStep

What the stage means
Planning and building permissibility is established: building permit or positive preliminary notice, including the required expert reports.
Evidence on file
Building permit or preliminary notice
Noise, fire safety and species protection reports
Proof of servicing and heavy-load access
Risk removed
Permitting risk is removed. Since December 2025 the privilege under section 35 BauGB eases many projects in the outer area.
Why projects fail here
Servicing or access cannot be arranged. Containers and transformer arrive by low-loader. Where that cannot go, the project ends.
Planning permission is out of reach. The outer-area privilege does not apply, and the municipality will not adopt a development plan.
Economics tip with market developments. Spreads, system prices, interest rates or the grid fee regime move — and the model no longer carries.
Relative project value
72 to 86, relative to Ready to Build = 100. Residual risk to commercial operation: 10–20 %.
To the next stage
3 to 9 months
Where we hand over
Most common handover point for buyers who want to run detailed engineering themselves.

RtB — ready to build

What the stage means
Everything needed to start construction is in place: land, connection contract, permits, detailed design, certification path, EPC quotes and a complete financial model.
Evidence on file
Signed grid connection contract
Detailed medium-voltage design and unit certificates for components
EPC quotes with price and schedule commitment
Complete data room for due diligence
Risk removed
Development risks are cleared. Construction, procurement and market risks remain.
Why projects fail here
Economics tip with market developments. Spreads, system prices, interest rates or the grid fee regime move — and the model no longer carries.
Relative project value
100. This stage is the reference point of the scale, not a measured value.
To the next stage
1 to 6 months
Where we hand over
Our standard case — but not our limit. In most cases our work ends here and the buyer's begins.

NTP — notice to proceed

What the stage means
The investment decision is made, financing is in place, the construction order is issued. The contractor starts.
Evidence on file
Final investment decision by the owner
Financing agreement or equity commitment
Signed EPC contract with schedule
Risk removed
Financing risk is removed; construction and supply chain risk becomes active.
Why projects fail here
Nothing left from the list of reasons for abandonment. What can still go wrong here is construction and supply-chain risk — the line above.
Relative project value
102 to 112, relative to Ready to Build = 100. Residual risk to commercial operation: 2–5 %.
To the next stage
9 to 18 months
Where we hand over
A handover is possible here too. Buying after the investment decision means taking on construction and supply-chain risk — in exchange for a project that is being built.

COD — commercial operation

What the stage means
Plant certificate and declaration of conformity are in place, commissioning at the connection point is complete, marketing has started.
Evidence on file
Plant certificate under VDE-AR-N 4110 and declaration of conformity
Commissioning protocol from the grid operator
Marketing contract and connected energy management system
Risk removed
Construction and certification risk are removed. Market risk on revenues remains.
Why projects fail here
Nothing left from the list of reasons for abandonment. What can still go wrong here is construction and supply-chain risk — the line above.
Relative project value
115 to 135, relative to Ready to Build = 100. Residual risk to commercial operation: 0–0 %.
To the next stage
The axis ends here.
Where we hand over
Operating phase. We hand this over as well — or keep running it: technical and commercial asset management are part of what we do.

Where we hand over — and why not always at the same point

Handover at RtB is the exception, not the standard case: usually we build on to commissioning and keep or sell the finished plant. Where a handover does take place at RtB, the development risks have been worked through at that point: land, grid connection agreement, planning consent and detailed design are in place, certification is prepared, and the financial model rests on evidenced assumptions.

Handing over earlier is possible as well — as co-development from secured land, or as a forward purchase from the grid connection grant. On large schemes a buyer may also take only the project rights or the secured site. Entering earlier means buying cheaper and carrying part of the development risk. That is a choice, not a fallback.

At the far end the axis is our normal case: through construction, into commissioning and into operation — on our own books or for buyers. Which stage is the right one for a handover is decided by the project and the partner, not by a standard sequence.

Sources

Sources last reconciled on

  1. Bundesnetzagentur (Monitoring), berichtet von pv magazine: Grid connection requests and offers for battery storage in 2025. As of 2026-08-25. Go to source
  2. Bundesnetzagentur: Electricity storage – large-scale battery stock (market master data register, as of 15 Oct 2025). As of 2025-10-15. Go to source

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